Donald Trump has still not recovered from his bout of ‘tariff’itis, if we can be allowed the liberty to term it so. The latest sign of the ailment was him calling foreign movies a “national security threat” and going on to puff up his favourite “I will be slapping a 100 per cent tariff on them” line.In a post on his Truth Social platform on Sunday, Trump wrote, “The Movie Industry in America is DYING a very fast death,” adding that other countries are offering “all sorts of incentives” to drive filmmakers and studios away from the US.”This is a concerted effort by other Nations and, therefore, a National Security threat,” he further wrote, describing foreign films as “messaging and propaganda.”He also added that he was authorising the Department of Commerce and the US Trade Representative “to immediately begin the process” of imposing a 100 per cent tariff on films coming into the US which are “produced in Foreign Lands”.On Monday, there were signs that White House might have begun to realise the Alice in Wonderland quality to the announcement. Might be the King did not mean Off with heads after all.”Although no final decisions on foreign film tariffs have been made, the administration is exploring all options to deliver on President Trump’s directive to safeguard our country’s national and economic security while Making Hollywood Great Again,” White House spokesperson Kush Desai said.But many were still left wondering what the announcement implied and how the filters might be applied.Billion-dollar questionThe biggest question looming before them — what exactly counts as a foreign film in today’s globalised world? Remember films these days rely very rarely on the resources of just one country. Big-budget movies backed even by American studios end up being filmed abroad with an international cast and crew.Take one such recent example, Wicked. One of the highest-grossing films in Hollywood, it was shot at Sky Studios Elstree in the United Kingdom. In the same way, Barbie was also shot in the UK, at Warner Brothers’ studios. The production of Barbie added more than 80 million pounds to the UK economy and generated hundreds of jobs. The same studio also made Wonka.Many American films have also been either fully or partly shot in Australia, such as Fall Guy and Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes.Australia offers many filming incentives, including a 30 per cent rebate under its location offset scheme. Similarly, New Zealand also provides similar tax benefits.The US gothic horror film Nosferatu was shot in Prague, Czech Republic. Other American films have also been made in Spain, Germany and New Zealand.Meanwhile, many of what Trump could consider to be “foreign films” also generate revenue for “the U.S.A”.Many Indian films made over the past two decades have made use of Brooklyn Bridge, New York City and Miami beaches. Now, the question arises if these foreign films that generate revenue for the US are also guilty of “messaging and propaganda”.Hurting Indian filmsThe next big question is how much do foreign films rely on the US as a market?Shibasish Sarkar, president of the Producers Guild of India, told the Press Trust of India (PTI) on Monday that Indian films make over Rs 800 crore at the US box office every year.He predicted that “if this tariff is implemented, exhibitors will increase ticket prices and make it expensive for consumers because of which even footfalls will drop dramatically.”Filmmaker Vivek Agnihotri agreed. “I don’t think anybody will watch them in theatres, especially when the films will be available on Netflix, Amazon, etc,” he told PTI.The US is home to 5.4 million people of Indian origin, the largest Indian diaspora globally. But it’s not just Indian films that perform well in the US.Paddington in Peru from the UK earned over USD 45 million there, while South Korean animation The King of Kings made USD 54.7 million in April, surpassing Parasite. However, unlike Parasite, The King of Kings is in English and features Hollywood actors like Oscar Isaac.One tariff that will not give China sleepless nightsBy contrast, Chinese films remain largely dependent on domestic audiences.Animated hit Ne Zha 2 grossed USD 1.9 billion, mostly in China, with over 99 per cent of its earnings from the mainland.Similarly, 2024 comedy Yolo earned just USD 2 million in the US despite being one of the year’s top global hits.What Australia and New Zealand have to sayFollowing Trump’s threat, Australian Home Affairs Minister and Minister for the Arts, Tony Burke, responded saying, “Nobody should be under any doubt that we will be standing up unequivocally for the rights of the Australian screen industry.”New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon said that his government was awaiting further details on the tariffs.”We’ll have to see the detail of what actually ultimately emerges. But we’ll be obviously a great advocate, great champion of that sector and that industry,” he said.Philippa Childs, the head of UK media and entertainment union Bectu, called on her government to protect its film industry adding that “These tariffs, coming after COVID and the recent slowdown, could deal a knock-out blow to an industry that is only just recovering”, Childs said.Following the pattern of other Trump “threats”, US media stocks fell on Monday following the announcement.Streaming giant Netflix saw its shares drop by 2.5 per cent in early trading, while Disney, Warner Brothers, and Comcast also recorded declines ranging from 0.7 to 1.7 per cent.With so much worry being unleashed, we must finally examine Trump’s assumption that Hollywood is “dying”. Is that for real?It is true that in recent years, Hollywood has faced a series of challenges, starting with the COVID-19 pandemic.In 2023, global box office revenues for Hollywood studios stood at around USD 30 billion, down 7 per cent from the previous year and still about 20 per cent below the pre-pandemic average, according to Gower Street Analytics.That same year, the Writers Guild of America and SAG-AFTRA went on strike, demanding fairer contracts and protections against AI, which led to shutdowns and staff reductions across the industry.In early 2024, wildfires in Los Angeles damaged several filming locations and destroyed the homes of many actors. As the industry struggles with these setbacks, a push is under way to bring more productions back to California, with filmmakers and industry workers urging state lawmakers to boost tax incentives.Be that as it may, Trump’s tariff threat may offer little relief to the industry, sparking instead fresh questions about what defines a “foreign” film in a world where cinema is inherently global.The US President may have framed the threat as protecting American interests, but it risks harming international collaborations and alienating key allies whose industries also support and enrich Hollywood. As the global film landscape continues to shift, such policies built on isolation may do little to revive a struggling industry – and instead only accelerate its decline.
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