Reliance Industries and Nayara Energy have been key beneficiaries, with Reliance lifting 77 million barrels of discounted Urals crude in 2025 alone.While diversifying beyond the Gulf reduces certain geopolitical risks, it increases India’s exposure to Western sanctions, as seen in the imposition of punitive tariffs by the US.Downstream, India’s refining sector continues to perform robustly. With a total capacity of 256.8 MMTPA in 2024—expected to grow to 309.5 MMTPA by 2030—India’s 23 refineries run at some of the highest utilisation rates globally.The country’s export strength in petroleum products is another bright spot. Export volumes rose by 3.4% to 65.1 MMT in FY2025, though export value declined by 7% due to softer global prices. Europe, particularly the Netherlands, has emerged as a major market, doubling its share of Indian petroleum exports to 21% since 2020.India’s reliance on imported naphtha has grown. Russian supplies now account for over half of India’s naphtha imports in 2025, up from around 15% in 2024, thanks to discounts of $14–15 per tonne.The midstream segment paints a similar picture of dependency. Domestic gas output of 36 billion cubic metres (bcm) in FY2025 falls well short of the 71 bcm consumed. LNG imports worth $15.2 billion bridge the gap, with Qatar leading at 43% and the US now overtaking the UAE as the second-largest supplier.In a strategic move to secure long-term gas supplies, GAIL has acquired a 26% stake in a US LNG project, along with a 15-year offtake deal. Key infrastructure projects like Urja Ganga and the Indradhanush Gas Grid aim to improve access across refineries, fertiliser units, and urban centres.Policy shifts and investments are driving structural transformation.
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