India imports over 60% of its crude oil from the Gulf. Moreover, over 8 million Indian nationals work across the region, sending home billions in remittances annually. Any expansion of the conflict threatens both energy security and the safety of this diaspora. Delhi is thus keen to avoid being dragged into overt alignment while protecting its citizens and supply chains through backchannel diplomacy.Heightened alerts have already been issued across US military bases in the region, signalling Washington’s anticipation of possible retaliation. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has hinted at a range of responses, including targeting US naval assets in the Persian Gulf or launching cyberattacks on critical infrastructure.Global reactions to the US strike reveal deep fractures in the world order. France and Germany urged a return to diplomacy via the JCPOA, while Russia condemned the attack as reckless and destabilising. China, adopting a cautious tone, called for restraint and emphasised the need to protect non-proliferation norms and global energy security.Despite the dangerous escalation, a sliver of space for negotiation remains. The fact that both Washington and Tehran have publicly downplayed the strategic value of the targeted facility suggests a mutual desire to manage the crisis rather than provoke a full-scale war. Iran’s statement that enriched uranium had been removed from the Fordow site before the strike, along with the US assertion that it only targeted facility entrances, signals calculated restraint on both sides.This opens a narrow window for diplomacy, but whether global and regional actors can seize it remains uncertain. The US and Israel appear intent on weakening Iran’s regime, while Tehran is opting, for now, to mute its response to avoid crossing the threshold into uncontrollable conflict.With trust eroded, diplomatic channels frayed, and alliances increasingly fragmented, a return to serious negotiation will require far more than rhetoric. It will demand bold, credible mediation efforts—particularly from middle powers and trusted regional actors willing to bridge divides and de-escalate tensions before it’s too late.- Dr. Waiel AwwadSenior international journalist, West Asia strategist
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