Simmering tensions over trade and tariffsThe latest hiccup between India and the US emerged last week when Trump announced that he was slapping 25% tariffs on India as well as an unspecified penalty because of India’s purchasing of Russian oil. For New Delhi, such a move from its largest trading partner is expected to be felt across sectors, but it also led to a sense of unease in India — even more so when Trump, on social media, called India’s economy “dead.”Trump’s recent statements reflect his frustration with the pace of trade talks with India, according to a White House official who was not authorized to speak publicly and spoke on condition of anonymity to describe internal administration thinking. The Republican president has not been pursuing any strategic realignment with Pakistan, according to the official, but is instead trying to play hardball in negotiations.Trump doubled down on the pressure Monday with a fresh post on Truth Social, in which he accused India of buying “massive amounts” of oil from Russia and then “selling it on the Open Market for big profits.”“They don’t care how many people in Ukraine are being killed by the Russian War Machine. Because of this, I will be substantially raising the Tariff paid by India to the USA,” he said.The messaging appears to have stung Modi’s administration, which has been hard-selling negotiations with Trump’s team over a trade deal by balancing between India’s protectionist system while also opening up the country’s market to more American goods.“Strenuous, uninterrupted and bipartisan efforts in both capitals over the past 25 years are being put at risk by not just the tariffs but by fast and loose statements and social media posts,” said Malik, who now heads the India chapter of The Asia Group, a US advisory firm .Malik also said the trade deal the Indian side has offered to the US is the “most expansive in this country’s history,” referring to reports that India was willing to open up to some American agricultural products. That is a politically sensitive issue for Modi, who faced a yearlong farmers’ protest a few years ago.Trump appears to be tilting toward PakistanThe unraveling may have gained momentum over tariffs, but the tensions have been palpable for a while. Much of it has to do with Trump growing closer to Pakistan, India’s nuclear rival in the neighborhood.In May, India and Pakistan traded a series of military strikes over a terror attack in Kashmir’s Pahalgam that New Delhi blamed Islamabad for. Pakistan denied the accusations. The four-day conflict made the possibility of a nuclear conflagration between the two sides seem real and the fighting only stopped when global powers intervened.But it was Trump’s claims of mediation and an offer to work to provide a “solution” regarding the dispute over Kashmir that made Modi’s administration uneasy. Since then, Trump has repeated nearly two dozen times that he brokered peace between India and Pakistan.For Modi, that is a risky — even nervy — territory. Domestically, he has positioned himself as a leader who is tough on Pakistan. Internationally, he has made huge diplomatic efforts to isolate the country. So Trump’s claims cut a deep wound, prompting a sense in India that the US may no longer be its strategic partner.India insists that Kashmir is India’s internal issue and had opposed any third-party intervention. Last week Modi appeared to dismiss Trump’s claims after India’s Opposition began demanding answers from him. Modi said that “no country in the world stopped” the fighting between India and Pakistan, but he did not name Trump.Trump has also appeared to be warming up to Pakistan, even praising its counterterrorism efforts. Hours after levying tariffs on India, Trump announced a “massive” oil exploration deal with Pakistan, saying that some day, India might have to buy oil from Islamabad. Earlier, he also hosted one of Pakistan’s top military officials at a private lunch. Sreeram Sundar Chaulia, an expert at Jindal School of International Affairs, said Trump’s sudden admiration for Pakistan as a great partner in counterterrorism has “definitely soured” the mood in India. Chaulia said “the best-case scenario is that this is just a passing Trump whim,” but he also warned that “if financial and energy deals are indeed being struck between the US and Pakistan, it will dent the US-India strategic partnership and lead to loss of confidence in the US in Indian eyes.”
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