Mind-boggling business deals and dramatic geopolitical swings marked US President Donald Trump’s four-day Middle East tour last week. Flying from Riyadh (Saudi Arabia) to Doha (Qatar) and Dubai (UAE), he shook hands with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Qatar’s Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani and UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, signing in the process multi-billion-dollar investment and trade deals. This was President Trump’s first state visit abroad (barring the short visit to Rome to attend the Pope’s funeral), and the primary aim seems to have been to mop up funds by the billions. The Middle East clearly is where the money is; Europe is pretty much teetering on the edge with governments headed towards deficit financing; Japan is stretched out, China wary and withdrawing its financial interests in the US, and most other countries in no position to invest massively in the US. President Trump triumphantly announced a slew of deals with the three Arab leaders, including a $1.2 trillion economic exchange agreement with Qatar, other economic deals totalling more than $243.5 billion with Qatar (including the sale of Boeing aircraft and GE Aerospace engines to Qatar Airways), a $14.5 billion deal with the UAE to sell 28 American-made Boeing 787 and 777X aircraft, a $600 billion commitment from Saudi Arabia to invest in the United States and $142 billion in US arms sales to the kingdom, among others. Significantly, the UAE is to build one of the world’s largest AI hubs with US technology and management. These nations are also slated to invest billions in American manufacturing. While all this was big news, what really raised eyebrows across the globe were the accompanying geopolitical moves. The most unexpected was Mr Trump’s cold shoulder to Israel during his Middle East tour. This highlighted how business and not regional geopolitics could become the “new normal” for America. President Trump’s clear message was that Israel matters much less than lucrative business deals with wealthy Arab nations even if it means jettisoning decades of established American geopolitical positions. The other two US decisions that must have rattled Israel are Washington’s acceptance of the jihadi regime in Syria led by Ahmed al-Sharaa, a former Islamist radical who had a state department bounty on his head, and the opportunistic deal with the Houthis, who apparently have agreed not to target US warships or shipping in the Suez Canal and its vicinity but, as they have demonstrated, will not stop targeting Israel. This is plain abandonment. President Trump has also asked the Israeli leadership to make up with Mr Al-Sharaa, now Syria’s President, whom he has described as “a young, attractive guy with a very strong past”. On his part, Mr Trump surprised his own administration by announcing that he would lift all sanctions on Syria with immediate effect. The reconciliation with the new Syrian leadership appears to be aimed at acceptance of the idea of Sunni Arab domination of the Gulf at the cost of the Iran-backed Shia affiliates in the region. Hence, the Alawites, who once pretty much ruled Syria, are to be freely hunted and killed, the Hezbollah sanctioned and the Houthis ignored while the Sunni surrogates of Qatar and other Arab nations are free to assert their will over the people of the Middle East. At the same time, Iran, and perhaps Turkey to some extent, are being marginalised. But for how long? President Trump seems not to care as long as the petrodollars and gas dollars fund his dreams for a great resurgence of strategic manufacturing within the United States. As for critics of his changed stance on Israel, President Trump is unrepentant, arguing that his moves will actually help the Jewish state: “This is good for Israel, having a relationship like I have with these countries; Middle Eastern countries, essentially all of them.” That could be a matter of conjecture. For, as Jonathan Panikoff, a former US intelligence officer currently with the Atlantic Council, points out: “Trump is clearly determined to move ahead with a transactional, trade and investment focused agenda… If the traditional political or security matters that the US and Israel have always historically coordinated on closely don’t align well with Trump’s priorities, he’s going to go forward with them anyway.” Mr Trump’s Middle East tour holds lessons for world leaders watching his maverick vacillations and policy shifts. What emerged from this trip is that he is no madman, as some claim, but an astute businessman who holds profit above principles, and truly believes in his mission to make America great again. His challenges include the revival of strategic manufacturing in the US, slashing the burgeoning trade deficit, gradually paring runaway budget deficits, lowering the value of the dollar to make exports competitive and securing massive foreign inward investments. He also believes that there is no percentage in Washington trying to police the world or uphold moral principles or play geopolitical games at every corner of the world. He is intent on withdrawing America’s extended and, what he considers, profitless global reach and play. In order to achieve his aims, President Trump is more than prepared to jettison long-standing positions, agreements and even friends. In fact, he has taken the notion of countries not having permanent friends, only permanent interests, to an entirely new level. India, for instance, will have to carefully watch the supposedly “historic” tariffs agreement the Trump administration has worked out recently with China. According to a White House fact sheet, Mr Trump has “reached an agreement with China to reduce China’s tariffs and eliminate retaliation, retain a US baseline tariff on China, and set a path for future discussions to open market access for American exports”. Pointing out that the US trade deficit of $295.4 billion in 2024 with China was the largest with any trading partner, the fact sheet said that the latest agreement “works toward addressing these imbalances to deliver real, lasting benefits to American workers, famers, and businesses”. The next 90 days will prove crucial as negotiators on both sides thrash out the details. Should a workable agreement emerge, then Mr Trump’s views on China would change dramatically, as it has in the Middle East. India could well be hit in the process. Mr Trump’s open displeasure with Apple expanding production in India could be a hint of approaching trouble. The Middle East visit illustrates that with President Trump anything is possible, and every foreign leader is a great guy, but only as long as he works in tandem with American interests.
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