Basant S. Sanghera is a seasoned US foreign policy expert who has spent over a decade shaping strategic and defence ties with India. Formerly at the State Department, he played a key role in the US-India 2+2 Dialogue, worked on three presidential visits to India, and served as Director for India and the Indian Ocean at the National Security Council at the White House. Most recently, he served as Unit Chief on the India Desk at the State Department. Now Managing Principal at the Asia Group, Sanghera discusses with Jayanth Jacob the current dynamics and prospects of the US-India relationship. Excerpts. Beyond Trump’s tariffs and possibly stalled trade talks, do you see the “defining” India-US relationship hitting a wall — or is there still light at the end of the tariff tunnel? Over the last quarter of a century, the scope of the India-US relationship has expanded significantly and demonstrated considerable resilience. There are now over three dozen working groups discussing issues ranging from maritime cooperation to cutting-edge technology. India was heavily sanctioned after the 1998 nuclear tests, and it took significant diplomatic effort — led by Jaswant Singh (then External Affairs Minister) and Strobe Talbott (then U.S. Deputy Secretary of State) — to repair the relationship. Today, the ties face a serious crisis. The relationship urgently needs a reset. Any further downturn would be damaging for India. Trade negotiators have made considerable progress toward a potential deal, and a breakdown in relations would jeopardize that progress. There is a clear need for both repair and reset. With the additional tariff on Russian oil pushing the total to 50%, it not only creates an economic burden but also makes political repair more difficult for India. Do you think the narrow window offered by Trump leaves any real room to work out a solution? There is a window before the additional tariff comes into effect. The Russian angle should be de-hyphenated from the broader tariff equation. I believe both sides will find a way to work something out. Much will depend on the outcome of this week’s talks in Alaska between President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Trump approaches negotiations with a win-at-all-costs mindset — just look at how he closed deals with other countries. Both sides now need to assess what concessions are possible. Consider how the deal with Japan was talked up, including the proposal for a joint venture to develop a liquefied natural gas project in Alaska. India, too, has key defence purchases on the table, and there are already enough signals indicating a path forward. India may live with 25 per cent tariff. And 50 per cent is very tough. Again, both teams have been negotiating a substantial trade deal and India shouldn’t lose out on the deal. At this point, does it feel more like staring down a serious crisis than finding a clear path forward especially with Trump keeping at his claim of mediating during the India-Pakistan military standoff, a role India has firmly rejected? The current crisis has four key elements: trade irritants, political fallout from tariffs, the Russian oil import issue, and how to handle Trump’s claim of mediating between India and Pakistan. A crucial factor now is how quickly the Russia oil issue can be de-hyphenated from the broader trade equation. Trump has been projecting himself as a global peace-maker — with several countries even backing his Nobel Peace Prize ambitions. He isn’t receiving the kind of endorsement from India that he’s gotten from Pakistan, Israel’s Prime Minister, or the leaders of both Azerbaijan and Armenia. From his perspective, India’s silence is seen as a lack of acknowledgment, or lack of gratitude or perhaps even disrespect. A simple recognition that Trump exerted pressure on Pakistan might have gone a long way. But India remains firm in rejecting any hyphenation of its relationship with Pakistan.
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