The world is going through a difficult time. The IMF predicted that the global economic growth rate would fall from 3.4% in 2022 to 2.8% in 2023.
Merchandise trade is expected to decline from 2.7% in 2022 to 1.7% in 2023 (WTO). A series of related events, from the COVID-19 pandemic to the Russia-Ukraine war, high inflation, geo-political tensions and disruption of supply chains, have caused this economic downturn.
India is doing fairly well in these difficult times
India is among the fastest-growing countries in the world. India’s exports of goods and services reached US$766 billion in 2022. Merchandise exports were US$453 billion, while services exports saw a 30% jump over 2021 to reach US$313 billion in 2022.
India is among the top investment destinations in Asia. In 2021, India was the 7th largest FDI recipient, with US$45 billion in inflows (UNCTAD). In the same year, India captured almost 50% of the total R&D investment in developing Asia.
India’s growth drivers
India’s continued high growth and exports are driven by several path-breaking reforms, starting with the implementation of the GST to the production-linked incentive (PLI) scheme and measures to reduce logistics costs, such as the PM Gati-Shakti National Master Plan (PMGS-NMP) and the National Logistics Policy (NLP). The focus on the logistics sector has helped India to improve its ranking from 44 in 2018 to 38 (out of 139 countries) in 2023 in the World Bank’s Logistics Performance Index 2023.
To meet the export target of US$2 trillion by 2030, India has fast-tracked the free trade agreement (FTA) negotiations with like-minded and critical export markets. It signed comprehensive agreements with Mauritius and the United Arab Emirates and the ECTA (Economic Cooperation and Trade Agreement) with Australia. It is negotiating a complete agreement with the UK, Australia, Canada and the European Union. These agreements focus on diversifying the goods and services export baskets, attracting investments and building resilient supply chains. India’s recent Foreign Trade Policy (FTP, 2023), focusing on trade facilitation, is in the right direction to support export growth.
Robust trade, investment data will reduce fears
While India seems to be doing fairly well, many in India and abroad are apprehensive of the growth, worried about employment and job losses and about opening up sectors under trade agreements. The fears have compounded due to the global slowdown and its impact on some of our exports, including technology services exports. Such fear is primarily because of the lack of data and evidence.
Major services exporting countries, unlike India, are now publishing their bilateral services trade data. Aside from the developed countries like Australia, the USA and the UK, developing nations like Malaysia also report their data on bilateral trade in services to international organisations like the WTO. While countries like the USA report data for around 71 countries, Malaysia is reporting for about 22 partner countries, including India.
While India is one of the most attractive investment destinations, there is no data on sector-wise and country-wise FDI inflows. This makes it challenging to understand which types of firms from which countries are investing in what kind of sectors.
Many countries like Australia publish data on FTA utilisation to help analyse the impact of the FTA. Using such data, scholars in these countries can do robust data modelling to understand the pre and post-impact of the trade agreement. Robust data availability will help better data analysis for trade negotiations.
For example, scenario analysis can be done to showcase the impacts of liberalisation on GDP, employment and investment, which will, in turn, help to show evidence-based outcomes of the benefits of the FTA and liberalisation with key export markets.
A report by one of the authors, titled ‘Express Delivery Services: Supporting the Journey towards India@2047’, found that export data through the express or e-commerce mode is not captured in India’s total trade data. Hence, our trade and exports may be under-reported.
While the Foreign Trade Policy FTP (2023) has identified four new towns of economic excellence in addition to the already existing 39 towns and focuses on making districts the export hubs, it is also essential to know how micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs )in this town and across districts and production centres can be linked to the global value chain and what kind of capacity building programme and training do they need for such linkages.
Such information can help in targeted policy designs.
Better data gathering can help to showcase India
All stakeholders – government, academicians and the private sector can collaborate for better data gathering, collation and analysis. Indian needs a state-of-the-art trade data centre, and this can be designed after looking at global best practices in data collection, identifying the data gaps and using surveys and other tools to collect and collate data and information. Such information will also help diversify our production and export baskets, focusing on high and inclusive growth, attracting investment and generating employment.
India is doing well in a difficult global scenario. However, unlike many countries, India is yet to showcase its success stories through data. It is often difficult to convey success stories and build business confidence without data and evidence. A robust trade and investment data will further confirm India’s high growth performance, build business confidence and help in policy design.
While India is one of the most attractive investment destinations, there is no data on sector-wise and country-wise FDI inflows. This makes it challenging to understand which types of firms from which countries are investing in what kind of sectors. Many countries like Australia publish data on FTA utilisation to help analyse the impact of the FTA.
The world is going through a difficult time. The IMF predicted that the global economic growth rate would fall from 3.4% in 2022 to 2.8% in 2023.
Merchandise trade is expected to decline from 2.7% in 2022 to 1.7% in 2023 (WTO). A series of related events, from the COVID-19 pandemic to the Russia-Ukraine war, high inflation, geo-political tensions and disruption of supply chains, have caused this economic downturn.
India is doing fairly well in these difficult times googletag.cmd.push(function() {googletag.display(‘div-gpt-ad-8052921-2’); });
India is among the fastest-growing countries in the world. India’s exports of goods and services reached US$766 billion in 2022. Merchandise exports were US$453 billion, while services exports saw a 30% jump over 2021 to reach US$313 billion in 2022.
India is among the top investment destinations in Asia. In 2021, India was the 7th largest FDI recipient, with US$45 billion in inflows (UNCTAD). In the same year, India captured almost 50% of the total R&D investment in developing Asia.
India’s growth drivers
India’s continued high growth and exports are driven by several path-breaking reforms, starting with the implementation of the GST to the production-linked incentive (PLI) scheme and measures to reduce logistics costs, such as the PM Gati-Shakti National Master Plan (PMGS-NMP) and the National Logistics Policy (NLP). The focus on the logistics sector has helped India to improve its ranking from 44 in 2018 to 38 (out of 139 countries) in 2023 in the World Bank’s Logistics Performance Index 2023.
To meet the export target of US$2 trillion by 2030, India has fast-tracked the free trade agreement (FTA) negotiations with like-minded and critical export markets. It signed comprehensive agreements with Mauritius and the United Arab Emirates and the ECTA (Economic Cooperation and Trade Agreement) with Australia. It is negotiating a complete agreement with the UK, Australia, Canada and the European Union. These agreements focus on diversifying the goods and services export baskets, attracting investments and building resilient supply chains. India’s recent Foreign Trade Policy (FTP, 2023), focusing on trade facilitation, is in the right direction to support export growth.
Robust trade, investment data will reduce fears
While India seems to be doing fairly well, many in India and abroad are apprehensive of the growth, worried about employment and job losses and about opening up sectors under trade agreements. The fears have compounded due to the global slowdown and its impact on some of our exports, including technology services exports. Such fear is primarily because of the lack of data and evidence.
Major services exporting countries, unlike India, are now publishing their bilateral services trade data. Aside from the developed countries like Australia, the USA and the UK, developing nations like Malaysia also report their data on bilateral trade in services to international organisations like the WTO. While countries like the USA report data for around 71 countries, Malaysia is reporting for about 22 partner countries, including India.
While India is one of the most attractive investment destinations, there is no data on sector-wise and country-wise FDI inflows. This makes it challenging to understand which types of firms from which countries are investing in what kind of sectors.
Many countries like Australia publish data on FTA utilisation to help analyse the impact of the FTA.
Using such data, scholars in these countries can do robust data modelling to understand the pre and post-impact of the trade agreement. Robust data availability will help better data analysis for trade negotiations.
For example, scenario analysis can be done to showcase the impacts of liberalisation on GDP, employment and investment, which will, in turn, help to show evidence-based outcomes of the benefits of the FTA and liberalisation with key export markets.
A report by one of the authors, titled ‘Express Delivery Services: Supporting the Journey towards India@2047’, found that export data through the express or e-commerce mode is not captured in India’s total trade data. Hence, our trade and exports may be under-reported.
While the Foreign Trade Policy FTP (2023) has identified four new towns of economic excellence in addition to the already existing 39 towns and focuses on making districts the export hubs, it is also essential to know how micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs )in this town and across districts and production centres can be linked to the global value chain and what kind of capacity building programme and training do they need for such linkages.
Such information can help in targeted policy designs.
Better data gathering can help to showcase India
All stakeholders – government, academicians and the private sector can collaborate for better data gathering, collation and analysis. Indian needs a state-of-the-art trade data centre, and this can be designed after looking at global best practices in data collection, identifying the data gaps and using surveys and other tools to collect and collate data and information. Such information will also help diversify our production and export baskets, focusing on high and inclusive growth, attracting investment and generating employment.
India is doing well in a difficult global scenario. However, unlike many countries, India is yet to showcase its success stories through data. It is often difficult to convey success stories and build business confidence without data and evidence. A robust trade and investment data will further confirm India’s high growth performance, build business confidence and help in policy design.
While India is one of the most attractive investment destinations, there is no data on sector-wise and country-wise FDI inflows. This makes it challenging to understand which types of firms from which countries are investing in what kind of sectors. Many countries like Australia publish data on FTA utilisation to help analyse the impact of the FTA.
