What is the impact on India?Russia accounted for nearly 36 percent of India’s total crude oil imports in 2024, snapping up approximately 1.8 million barrels of cut-price Russian crude per day. Buying Russian oil saved India billions of dollars on import costs, keeping domestic fuel prices relatively stable. Switching suppliers will likely threaten price rises, but not doing so will hit India’s exports.The Federation of Indian Export Organisations warned that the cost of additional US tariffs risked making many businesses “not viable.”Urjit Patel, a former central bank governor, said Trump’s threats were India’s “worst fears”. Without a deal, “a needless trade war” would likely ensue and “welfare loss is certain”, he said in a post on social media.What has Modi done?Modi has sought to bolster ties with other allies. That includes calling Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva on Thursday, who said they had agreed on the need “to defend multilateralism.”Ashok Malik, of business consultancy The Asia Group, told AFP: “There is a signal there, no question.”India’s national security adviser Ajit Doval met with Vladimir Putin in Moscow, saying the dates of a visit to India by the Russian president were “almost finalised.”Modi, according to Indian media, might also visit China in late August. It would be Modi’s first visit since 2018, although it has not been confirmed officially. India and neighbouring China have long competed for strategic influence across South Asia.Successive US administrations have seen India as a key partner with like-minded interests when it comes to China. “All those investments, all that painstaking work done by many US presidents and Indian prime ministers, is being put at risk,” Malik said.”I have not seen the relationship so troubled since the early 1990s, to be honest. I’m not saying it’s all over, but it is at risk.”
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