NEW DELHI: The spine-chilling visual of Kheer Ganga (Kheer Gad) river unleashing a torrent of water, mud and debris through Dharali village in Uttarkashi district of Uttarakhand has brought back a deluge of dark memories from the past.The ferocious Kheer Ganga flattened houses, hotels, home-stays and shops, and swept away the Uttarkashi-Gangotri road, before draining into Bhagirathi river. The old Dharali village, located on the west bank of the river’s mouth, escaped with lesser impact but the new village settlement on a dried riverbed to the east was completely erased. So far, five people have been confirmed dead, one rescued, and dozens are still missing. The river caused significant destruction in 2018 and 2021 as well. Geologists indicate that the current settlement in Dharali is built on silt deposited by a massive flood way back in 1835. Construction on the river’s course has only enhanced the risk of flooding. That the river is prone to carrying heavy debris during the flood season is common knowledge, yet many have encroached into its path by building commercial establishments, home-stays, roads and other infrastructure. The government has not yet confirmed whether the incident was caused by a cloudburst, a glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF), or a combination of several factors such as avalanche, landslides, heavy rainfall or cloudbursts. The India Meteorological department (IMD) data does not support the scenario of a cloudburst which is defined as rainfall of 100 mm or more within an hour over a 10 sq km area.The uncertainty led the Ministry of Home Affairs to direct the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) to investigate and provide insight into the event, facilitating a timely response. This situation mirrors the devastating Kedarnath disaster of 2013, one of the worst natural disasters in recent Indian history. ISRO’s analysis indicated that the 2013 disaster was caused by a combination of heavy rainfall, glacial lake outburst floods and landslides, all exacerbated by unplanned infrastructure development.In response, government agencies recognised that changes in climatic patterns in the Himalayan region can lead to potential disasters. The Department of Science and Technology convened a meeting attended by NITI Aayog, IMD and the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) to analyse the state’s current climate change action plan and identify strategies to mitigate such disasters. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report on the cryosphere highlights that glacier retreat and permafrost thaw decreased the stability of Himalayan mountain slopes and the integrity of infrastructure. Changing precipitation patterns due to climate change have made Himalayan mountains vulnerable.Experts warn that intense rainfall raises the risk of landslides in these areas, underscoring the need for rapid development of specific mitigation and adaptation plans. Dr Subimal Ghosh from IIT-Bombay noted that for every Celsius of warming, extreme precipitation increases by 7-8%. Concerns have constantly been raised about unchecked infrastructure development, such as hotels and hydropower projects which exacerbate risks and economic losses.
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