Nations in the pursuit of their identified interests display some consistency, by and large, for long durations in their policies to achieve their objectives. Yet, at times, geopolitics does witness unexpected traumatic changes whose outcomes, if not accorded adequate priority with alacrity, can be harmful even to powerful nations. How can Bangladesh, born in mid-December 1971 with the active help of its larger neighbour India, that sacrificed over 3,500 soldiers in the 1971 India-Pakistan war, ever forget New Delhi’s massive contribution to its independence, and later to its economic growth and development? But India now faces, on its eastern flank, a credible threat from till recently a devout friend now turned hostile neighbour. It is indeed ironical that the erstwhile East Pakistan, reborn as Bangladesh in December 1971, which suffered gravely at the hands of their West Pakistan brethren, is now witnessing the emergence of a rare bonhomie between Dhaka and Islamabad. A rare case of a complete, if inexplicable, somersault in geopolitics.Since its liberation from its oppressive West Pakistani rulers, who ordered the butchery of lakhs of their then East Pakistani brethren and whose soldiers and irregulars raped thousands of women, the geopolitical wheel has turned full circle. Since its independence and liberation, Bangladesh enjoyed extremely good relations with India, despite some minor pinpricks over boundary-related problems and the sharing of river waters. India has a 4,023-km border with Bangladesh which passes through India’s West Bengal, Assam, Meghalaya, Tripura and Mizoram. Thus, Bangladesh’s geostrategic significance for India’s restive northeastern states and, with a politically unstable Myanmar and a perfidious China as neighbours, remains a matter of serious concern. One of the other key problems between the two nations was the inordinately large number of enclaves in each other’s territory: a difficult problem which was largely resolved in 2015.The other problems included large-scale illegal movement of people crossing the border into India for seeking employment in Kolkata and elsewhere in the Indian heartland. India and Bangladesh have a shared civilisational, cultural, ethnic and linguistic ties with each other as they have been part of the same heritage. But after the Partition of India in August 1947, today’s Bangladesh emerged as East Pakistan, ruled from Rawalpindi and Islamabad in the west. A quarter century was to pass before the eastern wing with Pakistan broke away after a bloodbath, and a new nation was born. Till last year, relations between New Delhi and Dhaka remained cordial. Immediately after its independence, India’s PM Indira Gandhi, who had played a sterling role in the new nation’s birth, maintained warm relations with “Bangabandhu” Sheikh Mujibur Rahman. But after Mujib’s unexpected assassination in August 1975 by pro-Pakistan military officers, there was a fair amount of political instability at top political hierarchy levels for many years. In the late 1970s and early 1980s, Bangladesh drifted somewhat away from India and joined the Organisation of Islamic Countries. Radicalism also reared its ugly head there in this period. Hindus, Christians and Buddhists have been treated as second-class citizens for years, and the recent events in Bangladesh confirm the unjust treatment meted out to them. Since the late 1980s, however, relations did improve between the two neighbours. Cooperation was achieved in many facets of economic ties, trade, connectivity, power generation exports to Bangladesh, assistance during natural disasters, educational and cultural exchanges, military exercises and joint counter- terrorism efforts took place. The Awami League government of Mujib’s daughter, Sheikh Hasina, in power over two terms — first from 1996 to 2001, and then for 15 years from 2009 to 2024 — ensured fraternal ties between the two neighbours. However, the dramatic ouster of Sheikh Hasina’s government in Dhaka on August 5, 2024 and her flight to New Delhi led to a new adverse dimension to India-Bangladesh relations. Today’s government in Dhaka, led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus as chief adviser, is virulently anti-India and is warming up to both Pakistan and China. This is a matter of serious concern for New Delhi. Bangladesh would be well advised to note China’s debt-trap diplomatic strategy with nations it ostensibly goes out to assist. India, as South Asia’s leading power, will have to chart a clear-cut policy to restore fraternal relations with Bangladesh. Both nations, for their common good, must maintain peace and harmony with each other. Only recently, as some Hindus were protesting in a peaceful manner at Gopalganj, Sheikh Mujib’s birthplace, the Bangladesh Army fired upon them for no reason, killing at least 10 agitators. Instead of sympathising with the victims, Mr Yunus issued a statement condemning the Hindu protesters. The communal situation inside Bangladesh remains grim and grave, with the Hindu population and other minorities continuing to suffer. India now virtually has to contend with a “third front” threat emerging on its borders. It has to remain ever watchful of the joint threat faced from both China and Pakistan, especially to its strategic but highly vulnerable Siliguri Corridor, which is the only road link from the Indian mainland to its northeastern states. Thus, sooner rather than later, the Indian government will be well advised to invite Bangladesh’s chief adviser Muhammad Yunus to New Delhi for a detailed and no-holds- barred discussion to explain India’s “red lines” to Bangladesh and to point out the huge economic benefits which will accrue by ensuring peaceful relations between the two neighbours. Additionally, India has to also ensure that its traditional secular credentials remain of a high order for others to follow suit. Also, New Delhi needs to open up channels of communication with the principal Opposition force in Bangladesh, Begum Khaleda Zia’s Bangladesh Nationalist Party. Tough times lie ahead for Indian diplomacy to ensure the restoration, at least to some degree, of Bangladesh ‘s fractured relations with India. The writer, a retired lieutenant-general, was the first head of India’s Defence Intelligence Agency, and is a strategic analyst
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