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Economic recovery in India fraught with uncertainty, with inflation being biggest challenge in coming months



Robust economic activities need sufficient amount of money flow. However, despite the policy support, “bank credit growth has remained subdued, while large corporate have benefited from easier conditions in capital markets.” Such a comment even by IMF is not a happy situation, because our country does not only need corporate, but also MSMEs and other small businesses.Modi government must note this anomaly to boost small business and enterprises, vendors, et al to support the badly-needed job creation and their retention. Financial gaps must be narrowed to allow inclusive growth to all, not only the corporates.IMF says that “the net inflows and improvement in the current account have supported an increase in foreign exchange reserves. The current account balance is projected to return to a deficit of about one per cent of GDP in 2021-22, due to gradual recovery in domestic demand and higher oil prices.”Even in this matter, the situation is far from equitable, since petroleum prices are charged 30 per cent higher to common people in comparison to the airplanes. The government policies clearly support air transport and penalize surface transport.Moreover, economic outlook remains clouded due to pandemic-related uncertainties contributing to both downside and upside risks, the IMF report has mentioned. A persistent negative impact of COVID-19 on investment, human capital, and other growth drivers could prolong the uncertainty of recovery and impact medium-term growth.



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